The Premiership circus rolls onto our screens on Saturday and every club will contribute to make another post World Cup season the biggest yet from a media perspective.
The World Cup Finals generate tremendous enthusiasm the following season, and with even the top managers under severe pressure this season for one reason or another, no Premiership job is totally safe this time around.
Should Martin O’Neill be at Old Trafford instead of Sir Alex, and will Chelsea fans tire of another season of ‘meaningless’ Premiership victories if European glory slips through blue fingers again?
‘Harry’ has been busy down on the south coast, whilst Charlton have to learn to live without ‘Curbs’ who might have jumped before being potentially pushed as the Addicks face a potential nightmare season.
Agatha Christie would have struggled to pen a more compelling start to a new term, whilst web sites offer advice to potential punters on how supporters can add profit to their enjoyment by placing bets of all varieties relating to matches that endanger the strongest of marital relationships.
Football punters are increasingly important to bookmakers who realise that horse racing has shot itself in the foot too often to entice new customers, albeit that Italian football is under scrutiny after some dodgy activity of late.
The ex-Liverpool goalkeeper Bruce Grobbelaar was accused of match-fixing in this country several years ago, but all Brucie's blog seemed to achieve related to punters increasing their gambling on soccer, as opposed to the potentially terminal diagnosis in the horse racing sector. The ‘story’ (Bruce won substantial damages from a leading newspaper) merely boosted interest in fixed odds football betting!
Too many punters have their head in the clouds when they bet on football, with their hearts coursing the blood through the veins as betting slips are completed at breakneck speed as supporters back their team to achieve unrealistic targets.
Thierry Henry was a short priced favourite to score the first goal of the game in Arsenal’s matches last year, yet the Golden Boot winner only achieved the feat on five occasions.
Conversely, Darren Bent was on offer at rewarding odds by comparison and the Charlton striker opened the scoring in eight matches. ‘Sven’ made the mistake of ignoring Darren’s ability for this year’s World Cup, and the lesson for punters should be staring them in the face.
Punters need to delve into the information that is readily available these days, and rid themselves of laziness that will inevitably cost them money throughout the winter campaign. James Beattie scored the opening goal of the game seven times in matches involving Everton, yet James netted all those goals at Goodison Park.
Ignoring the potential of opposing teams for this example, the realistic odds for James to score the first goal at home this year should be around the 5/2 mark, with 12/1 freely available in matches away from Goodison Park. Those odds will not be reflected by bookmakers however, and punters need to hammer home the advantage, whether laying or playing the markets this season.
The scenario is repeated in the ‘correct score’ sector, with supporters of the popular teams steaming in for their side to slaughter the opposition on a weekly basis.
Although cynics suggest that ‘anoraks’ like myself can interpret numbers to an advantage, the facts suggest that figures never lie, and adopting this positive attitude can reap rewards.
Okay, so Arsenal hammered Middlesbrough 7-0 last year, but how many people would have suggested that Boro would have been the team that would have taken the hiding? Arsenal only managed to score a single home goal against Birmingham, before scraping past Cardiff (2-1) in a Highbury tie against Cardiff in the F.A. Cup, which emphasises the point I am trying to make.
If you consider that the home team is the favourite in the majority of matches, the sobering thought to consider when playing the correct score market, is that a stat of 310 against 70 emerged via home teams that scored a maximum of two goals in the Premiership last season. To ram home the point, also consider that two hundred and nineteen of those home teams scored less than two goals!
Splitting the two halves of a game offers more insight into the way that managers 'wind up' their players. Chelsea only 'won' sixteen first half 'matches', but claimed twenty-seven 'victories' in the second half of their games.
Hopefully this type of information will lead you to bet with your head this season and secure a profit instead of annual losses.
And finally to the bet of the year! This season’s major spread bet will be the market pertaining to the number of cards that Mrs (Graham) Poll will receive on her birthday. My spread would be around the 11/12 mark, with three given by her husband! Be lucky.
Malcolm Boyle is an ex bookmaker/odds compiler turned successful author who has written several books on realising a profit from betting including; ‘Fixed Odds Football’ and, more recently ‘The World Cup Betting Guide’. Malcolm has just launched a new daily column for GG.COM entitled ‘Goals Galore’ where he provides essential statistical preparation for those thinking about having a bet on this year’s UK Premiership both before the season begins and as it progresses across the season. Visit http://www.gg.com/goalsgalore
Written By: Malcolm Boyle
