Global Warming : Will Global Warming Produce More Intense Hurricanes Such As Katrina?

Although the 2005 hurricane season is finally over, the intense beating our southeastern coastline and its residents took still has us shaken. Many of us are also starting to connect the dots between global warming and the more intense hurricane activity we are experiencing, such as with Katrina this past year. Even to a layman, logic dictates the warmer air and water temperatures may have something to do with what appears to be a change for the worst in hurricane acitivity along our Atlantic coasts.

Unfortunately, research indicates these suspicions may not be unfounded. According to information gathered from the PEW Center on Global Climate Change in Arlington, Va., due to the effect global warming is considered to have on the intensity of hurricanes we may have more years such as we experienced in 2005. In addition, the center predicts this may be the case for at least the next decade or two.

The PEW Center reports because of the link between higher ocean temperatures and hurricanes, there is speculation that hurricanes will increase in frequency or intensity in a warmer world, with higher wind speeds and greater precipitation. In other words, even though studies show the frequency of hurricanes has not increased on average over the long term, scientists believe that global warming will result in more intense hurricanes, as increasing sea surface temperatures provide energy for storm intensification.

Higher ocean temperatures may also increase the likelihood of hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean or making landfall on the U.S. east coast. Although the phenomenon is not yet completely understood, a track of unusually deep and warm water appears to have led Katrina directly to the Gulf Coast when it struck.

In addition, a recently published MIT study provides the first data analysis indicating tropical storms are indeed becoming more powerful over time. The following statistics recorded by the National Hurricane Center seem supports this data.

The NHC describes the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as having had “well above-normal activity,” and it predicted even greater activity for 2005. With the season at its end, the past year has exceeded those expectations, as well as all previously recorded activity for a single season.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30. An average season produces 10 tropical storms, with six becoming hurricanes, two of which reach sustained wind speeds at or above 100 miles per hour (i.e. category three or higher). This is based on a long-term average, but there are variabilities from year to year.

As of Nov. 22, 2005, the following activity has been recorded:

** 24 named tropical storms for the first time since systematic record keeping began about 150 years ago;

** 13 hurricanes, with seven major hurricanes;

** The most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (Wilma);

** Three of the six most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (Katrina, Rita, Wilma);

** The first time three category five hurricanes have ever been recorded in the same year in the Atlantic basin;

** The most destructive hurricane in U.S. history (Katrina).

The PEW Center informs although the average number of hurricanes between 1995 and 2005 is probably unprecedented, we have not seen a long-term increase in hurricane frequency during the 20th century overall. Instead, we have seen periods of high-hurricane activity that last for several decades, followed by decades of low activity. (The 1920s-30s and the 1950s-60s were active periods.) In 1995, we entered and are currently in the latest natural phase of high hurricane frequency, which i

Laurie Huffman is a reporter for several northeastern Ohio newspapers owned by Dix Communications. She won two awards in 2005 from the Ohio Newspaper Association for best feature and best overall news covera